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ओली–प्रचण्ड सम्वन्धः संभावना भन्दा शंका धेरै

कृष्ण तिमल्सिना । प्रदेश र प्रतिनिधि सभा सदश्यको चुनाव अघि र चुनावी परिणाम आउंदै गर्दा दुवै दलका शिर्ष नेताको एउटै आवाज सुनिन्थ्यो– नयाँ सरकारको नेतृत्व नेकपा एमालेका अध्यक्ष केपी ओलीले गर्ने छन् र चुनाव लगत्तै पार्टी एकता हुनेछ । तर स्पष्ट चुनावी चित्र कोरिंदा नकोरिंदै दुवै दलका नेताको बोली शंसयपूर्ण बन्न थाल्यो र अहिले आशंकाको तहमा पुग्दैछ । चुनावी परिणाम आउदै गर्दा नयाँ सरकार ओलीको नेतृत्वमा बन्ने पक्कापक्की जस्तै थियो ।

परिणाम वाम एकता मजबुत हुने र गठबन्धनले स्पष्ट बहुमत पाउने अवस्था बन्यो । संस्थागत निर्णय नगरे पनि दुबै दलले भावी प्रधानमन्त्रीका रुपमा ओलीलाई अघि सारेका थिए । तर जव राजनीति वाम पार्टी एकताको सकस कोर्शमा प्रवेश ग¥यो, तव आपसी आशंका थपिए । प्रधानमन्त्री बन्न ओलीका लागि मुख्य तगारो पुष्पकमल दाहाल प्रचण्ड र पार्टी नेतृत्व सम्हाल्न प्रचण्डका लागि मुख्य तगारोे ओली भन्ने आशंकाले अहिले दुवै नेता आपसमा टाढीन खोजेजस्तै देखिएको छ ।

एमाले अध्यक्ष ओली वा माओवादी केन्द्रका अध्यक्ष पुष्पकमल दाहाल प्रचण्ड मध्ये को प्रधानमन्त्री बन्छ भन्ने मै नेताहरु दलीय बहसमा उत्रन थाल्नुले तल्लो तहसम्म आशंका उस्तै छ । पछिल्लो चुनावी समिकरणले माओवादीलाई समग्रमा तेस्रो हैसियतमा पु¥याएको छ र माओवादी जता ढल्किन्छ, उतै नयाँ सरकार गठनको पल्लाभारी हुने अवस्था छ । माओवादी अध्यक्ष पुष्पकमल दाहाल प्रचण्ड एमाले र माओवादीवीच पार्टी एकता सम्पन्न गराएर छिटो छिटो पार्टी अध्यक्ष बन्न आतुर जति देखिएका छन् उति नै एमाले इत्तरका दलसंग मिलेर सरकार गठन गर्ने संभावना पनि खोज्दै छन् भन्ने आरोपबाट गुज्रि रहेको अवस्था छ ।

एमाले अध्यक्ष केपी शर्मा ओली जतिसक्दो चांडो माओवादीसंग मिलेर प्रधानमन्त्री बन्न र माओवादी अध्यक्षलाई पार्टीको नेतृत्व सुम्पन जति आतुर छन् भनिराखीएको छ, यो सँगै ओलीले माओवादी इत्तरको शक्तिसंग मिलेर सरकार बनाउने र तत्काल पार्टीको नेतृत्व पनि नत्याग्ने रणनीतिमा छन् भन्ने आरोप बाट गुज्रि रहेका छन् । नेकपा एमालेका महासचिव ईश्वर पोखरेलको भुमिका र अभिव्यक्तिलाई लिएर माओवादी नेताहरु जति शसंकीत् छन् उति नै प्रचण्डको पछिल्लो व्यस्ततालाई लिएर एमाले नेताहरु शसंकीत् बनेका छन् ।

जनताको मत र पार्टीको चुनावी विजयका आलोकमा ओली प्रधानमन्त्रीका पहिलो दाबेदार भए पनि एमाले माओवादीको पार्टी एकता र खासगरी आफ्ना काउन्टर पार्ट प्रचण्डलाई सही व्यवस्थापन गर्न सकिराखेको अवस्था छैन । प्रचण्ड लगाएतका माओवादी नेतालाई सम्मानजनक ब्यवस्थापन गर्न नसके प्रधानमन्त्री हुन निकै ओलीका लागि माओवादी नेतृत्व पंक्तिको भुमीका चुनौती बन्नसक्ने अवस्था छ । आफू कार्यकारी सरकार प्रमुखको नेतृत्व गर्ने तर त्यसको बदलामा माओवादीले के पाउंने भन्ने प्रश्न पनि पेचिलो बनिरहेको छ ।

तर ओलीले भनेका छन्– दुई दलका दुई नेताले वान टु वान वार्ता गरेर आजसम्म सहकार्य संभव भयो र भोली पनि वान टु वान वार्ता वाटै निश्कर्षमा पुगिन्छ, समस्या छैन– ढिलाई मात्र भएको हो । एमाले नेताहरुको यस्तो भनाई आई रहँदा ओलीले त्याग गर्न भन्दा बढी मधेशवादी दललाई साथमा लिएर सरकार गठनको परिकल्पना गरेकोसम्मको आरोप लागि रहेको छ । जुन आरोपबाट बाहिर निस्केर एमाले नेताहरुले विश्वास चिर्ने आँट देखाएनन् भने पार्टी एकता संकटमा पर्नसक्छ ।

विद्यमान राजनीतिक समिकरण हेर्दा दुई पार्टी एकता संकटमा जानु भनेको ओलीको सत्तारोहणको संभावना कमजोर हुनु हो । यसमा एमालेको मुख्य नेतृत्व हुनुका नाताले ओलीको त्यागी र उदार भुमिका तथा योगदान अर्थपूर्ण र निर्णायक बन्नसक्छ । एमाले वार्टी भित्र पछिल्लो समय बनाएको छवीका कारण ओली नेता माधव नेपाल र झलनाथ खनालहरुको समुह भन्दा निकै बलिया छन् र ओलीले गर्ने निर्णय एमालेकै निर्णयका रुपमा लागु हुने अवस्था छ ।

यसबाहेक माओवादी केन्द्रका अध्यक्ष पुष्पकमल दाहाल प्रचण्ड लगाएतका माओवादीमा विगत्देखि बर्तमानसम्म एमालेभित्रका माधव नेपाल र वामदेव गौतमहरुलाई पत्याउने पंक्ति पनि ठूलो छ । यस अर्थमा ओलीले त्याग गरेको अवस्थामा एमाले भित्र प्रचण्डलाई पार्टी अध्यक्ष सुम्पेर अघि जानुपर्छ भन्नेको पल्ला भारी हुनेछ । अहिले वाम एकता अथवा पार्टी एकतामा देखिएको अर्को आशंका ओलीले प्रचण्डलाई भुमिकाबिहिन बनाउने त हैनन् भन्ने पनि हो ।

दुवै नेताले यो आशंका चिर्न नसक्दा राजनीति पुनः अर्को संभावनाको कोर्शमा जानसक्छ । किनकी राजनीतिमा असंभव भनिएका वा भनिने सबै खेल संभव हुने ठानिन्छ । यस आधारमा भन्दा वाम एकता भएमा प्रधानमन्त्रीको दौडमा ओली अघि नै होलान् तर पार्टी एकतामा आफू भुमिकाहिन हुने अवस्था आएमा प्रचण्ड पनि कमजोर हैंसेत मै बस्ने अवस्था छैन । अहिले प्रचण्डमा प्रधानमन्त्रीको रुची कम र एमाले सहितको पार्टी अध्यक्ष बन्ने रुची बढी देखिएको धेरैको बुझाई छ ।

तर एमालेसँग पार्टी एकतामा पनि समस्या आउने र ओलीलाई निशर्त सरकार बनाउन दिने उदार नीति अवलम्वन गर्नु परेको अवस्थामा प्रचण्डले के गर्लान् भन्ने अर्को प्रश्न पनि वहशमा छ । तर राजनीतिलाई संभावनाको खेलका रुपमा व्याख्या गर्ने स्वयं प्रचण्डका अघिल्तिर आफूलाई शक्तिशाली बन्ने बाटो भने सहज छ ।

गैर एमाले सरकारको सर्वसम्मत प्रधानमन्त्री बन्ने सहज विकल्प प्रचण्डसंग छ । काँग्रेस सभापति शेरबहादुर देउवाले यसअघि नै प्रचण्ड नेतृत्वको सरकारलाई समर्थन गर्ने भनि सकेको र मधेसवादी दलका नेताले पनि प्रचण्डलाई समर्थन गर्न सक्ने संकेत गरेकाले एमालेसंगको आशंका बढ्दै गएको अवस्थामा यो प्रचण्डका लागि बैकल्पीक राजनीतिक बाटो बन्नसक्छ ।

तर पनि प्रचण्डको जोड सरकार भन्दा पार्टी एकता मै देखिन्छ । माओवादीको सदावहार अध्यक्ष भएर पनि माओवादीलाई ठूलो पार्टी बनाउने अवस्था अहिले छैन । त्यसैले पार्टी एकतापछिको ठूलो कम्यूनिष्ट पार्टीको अध्यक्ष बन्ने प्रचण्ड रणनिति हुनसक्छ । यसमा ओली र ओलीका हार्डलाईनर समर्थक बाहेक अरु एमाले नेताहरु सकरात्मक छन् ।

जनादेशले पनि वाम गठन्धनलाई अनुमोदन गरिसकेको छ । यस परिस्थितिमा प्रचण्डले कुनै पनि जोखिम मोलेर पार्टीमा नियन्त्रण जमाउने पहिलो रणनीति प्रयोग गर्ने छन् । यो रणनीतिले आफू कमजोर र शक्तिहीन हुने अवस्था आएमा काँग्रेस र राजपा नेपाल तथा संघीय समाजवादी फोरम नयाँ सरकारका सारथी बन्न सक्ने अवस्था छ ।

ओलीले मधेशी दलहरुको साथ लिएर नयाँ सरकार गठन अभ्यास थालेको भन्दै चिढिएका प्रचण्डले पटक पटक समस सारेर बुधवार ओलीसंग वान टु वान वार्ता समेत गरेका छन् । जुन वार्ता दुवै नेताका निम्ति, पार्टी एकता र नयाँ सरकार गठनमा देखिएको आशंका चिर्ने महत्वपूर्ण अवसर हो ।

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